Maybe some hope for the future

Kadhir Manickam

(5 minutes)

<section data-section-id='701ce631-9b7c-45db-a9db-12a07386d6ff'>These days, whenever I talk to folks about AI, I hear a lot of uncertainty about the future. Now don't get me wrong, that's not everyone. Not even close. But there's a set of us who are increasingly anxious about the ramifications of all this AI stuff. Cats out of the bag now, though, isn't it? No turning back, too much money on the line... Some days I feel hopeless about it. But more and more, I keep reminding myself that I think we're witnessing the digital world becoming generally solved. It's commoditizing. And in the past, once something has been commoditized, we build on top of it. And I think there's hope to be found there! If the digital world becomes the foundation, I think we can go back to the physical world as our next great challenge. The real world is the only one that matters in my mind. I sometimes imagine a glorious future where the majority of our time, attention, and resources are returned to solving the problems around us. Probably naive, but you know what, let me dream for a second. </section> <section data-section-id='a946ba95-9cd1-4653-a3bf-1e4b1be7c290'><h2 id="software-as-a-solved-problem">Software as a solved problem</h2>So I have a new perspective: AI is fundamentally "solving" software in much the same way that previous technological revolutions solved their respective domains. Consider electricity. Once a marvel that required specialized knowledge to generate, distribute, and utilize, it has become an invisible utility that powers nearly every aspect of modern life. We don't think about electricity as a problem to solve anymore, we simply expect it to work. The same transformation occurred with telecommunications and networking. The internet, once a complex system requiring deep technical expertise to navigate and utilize, is now a foundational layer that we take for granted, enabling everything from global commerce to instant communication. This doesn't mean innovation in these domains has ceased. Electrical grids continue to evolve with renewable energy integration and smart distribution systems. Telecommunications advances with 5G and beyond. Networking protocols improve continuously. But the fundamental problem, how to reliably deliver electricity, connect people across distances, or transmit data between computers, is solved. These technologies have become stable, predictable foundations upon which entirely new categories of innovation are built. I think that software is undergoing this same transformation through AI. When I say AI will "solve" software, I mean that the creation, maintenance, and modification of software will become automated, accessible, and reliable enough to transition from a specialized craft requiring years of training to a ubiquitous utility available to anyone who needs it. </section> <section data-section-id='e9bbe6d1-c3d6-4946-805d-f7ce130414a2'><h2 id="the-consequences">The consequences</h2>Building in the digital world is becoming cheap, fast, and accessible to anyone with a problem worth solving. The most significant consequence of this, to me, is that software is losing its alpha. For decades, the complexity of building software was a moat. Big tech companies built products in ways that were nearly impossible for competitors to replicate without massive engineering teams and years of runway. That complexity premium is disappearing, and with it, the margin structure that the entire industry has taken for granted. This has a cascading effect. Goods and services that remain purely digital — software that exists only as software — face brutal pressure toward commoditization. Users will expect dramatically more for their money because they'll increasingly understand just how cheap it is to produce. But this isn't a new cycle. Every technological revolution went through this exact transition, from scarce craft to invisible foundation. Electricity ceased to be a competitive differentiator the moment it became a utility. The same happened with telecommunications, and then the internet. In each case, the complexity premium evaporated, the industry panicked, but then something remarkable happened: <callout icon="rocket" color="#3E63DD">The world built something entirely new atop what was now taken for granted.</callout>I think software is next in that lineage. And if history is any guide, the real story isn't what we're losing, it's what becomes possible once that foundation is laid. </section> <section data-section-id='74586f7a-1b91-47a4-8b07-a4542d2c0dff'><h2 id="the-next-frontier">The next frontier</h2>When anyone can build anything digital, I think the new frontier that opens up is the physical world. Let me explain. There's a version of this story that frightens people: AI takes the jobs, and nothing fills the void. But I find myself increasingly unconvinced by that version. Capitalism has a self-correcting mechanism that gets overlooked amid the panic: you cannot sell goods and services to people with no income. The more compelling story is that we will discover something new once the constraint of "this requires ten engineers and two years" is lifted. We always find new ways to stay busy. And when you ask people what they'd build if building were free? They don't say another SaaS product, I hope... They say they want to fix climate change. They want better healthcare for their parents. They want to understand why diseases go underfunded, why food gets wasted while people go hungry, why drug discovery moves at a glacial pace when lives are on the line, etc. These are the problems that have always mattered most, and they've always lived in the physical world, often so daunting, beyond our reach. I'll be honest. My gut reaction to believing that everything will be solved by unlimited software is still hesitation. But, that's more hope than I've felt in years! I don't know if we'll "just" solve climate change, cure cancer, or eliminate preventable suffering. But for the first time, the instinctual answer for me isn't "that's too hard, don't bother." If we can truly build anything in the digital world with just a thought, maybe, just maybe, some of these problems aren't as insurmountable as they once were. Something fundamental has shifted. The scales are tipping. And the next chapter of human ambition might be pointed at the problems that deserve it most. </section>